RCCL cuts 2016 EPS forecast by$.020 to $6.00. to $6.10 range

Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd (RCCL), the world’s second largest cruise shipping group, says it updated full year adjusted earnings per share (EPS )guidance to a range of $6.00 to $6.10.

“This is a $0.20 decrease at the midpoint versus previous guidance due to a $0.27 negative impact from currency and fuel rates, of which approximately $0.14 is related to weakness in the British Pound following the Brexit vote.  Lower than expected fuel expense in the second quarter partially offset the full year impact of weaker foreign currencies and rise in fuel prices, the company said in a statement.

As previously announced, the company sold 51% of its stake in Pullmantur and formed a Joint Venture with Springwater Capital.  This sale results in the deconsolidation of the Pullmantur Group.  Consistent with our other joint ventures, results from this venture will now be accounted for under equity method accounting.  An immaterial gain related to the sale has been excluded from the company's earnings guidance.

RCCL reports rise in second quarter interim profit to $229.9 million

Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. (RCCL), the world’s second largest cruise shipping group, has reported a rise insecond quarter net profit to $229.9 million from $184.9 million in the same period last year. Revenues increased to $2.10 billion from $2/06 billion, the company said in a statement.

In the first six months of the year, the net profit increased to $329.0 million from $230.2 million, while revenues rose to $.4.02 billion from $3.87 billion.

“Yields and costs for the year are also performing generally as expected. The sale of 51% of the Pullmantur Group announced in May was completed at the end of July. Consequently, Pullmantur's results will no longer be consolidated in the company's accounts. Since Pullmantur's yields and costs are lower than the fleet average, this change has the effect of increasing the company's yields and costs metrics for 2016,” RCCL said in the statement.

Key highlights of the second quarter figures:

Net Yields were up 1.1% on a Constant-Currency basis (down 0.5% As-Reported), in-line with previous guidance.

Net Cruise Costs ("NCC") excluding fuel were up 1.9% on a Constant-Currency basis (up 1.5% As-Reported), in-line with guidance.

US GAAP Net Income was $229.9 million or $1.06 per share, versus $185.0 million, or $0.84 per share in 2015.]

Adjusted Net Income was $235.2 million, or $1.09 per share, versus $185.0 million, or $0.84 per share in 2015, better than guidance due to lower than expected fuel expense.

Costa Cruises to homeport in Mumbai

Alan Lam reporting

At a press conference in Mumbai, Costa Cruises announced that it would entering the Indian market from December 2016, when its Costa neoClassica begins homeport cruise operations from the city.

The ship will perform a series of weekly sailings from 16 December 2016 to 18 March 2017. Its itineraries will include destinations such as Goa, Cochin, Maldives, and Colombo.

"We are delighted to bring cruising to the Indians at their doorstep,” said Buhdy Bok, President of Costa Group. “For many travellers, the holiday often starts after some sort of a long journey. Now, like never before, Indians will have the opportunity to start holidaying – right from their door-step - from India's largest metropolis, Mumbai."

“It is a proud moment for us to have Costa neoClassica to be homeported at India’s premier Mumbai Port,” said Sanjay Bhatia, Chairman of Mumbai Port. “The Mumbai Port has long been the principal gateway to India, playing a crucial role in sea trade and the development of the national economy, trade & commerce, and the prosperity of Mumbai city in particular."

On board the ship, to cater for the special regional need, Costa Cruises will also offer a variety of Indian cuisines, which include Jain, vegan, and vegeatarian dishes.

This pioneering move has demonstrated Costa’s confidence in the Indian market, which may be finally taking off. It also proves that, a decade after entering the Chinese market, Costa continues to be the pioneer in Asia.

Originally built in 1991, after a recent refurbishment and conversion the 52,926-gross ton Costa neoClassica has the capacity of 1,300 lower berths, carrying up to 1,766 passengers. It has a total of 654 cabins. The vessel will be the biggest cruise ship to sail between Mumbai and the Maldives.

Crystal Mozart christened in Vienna marking official launch of Crystal River Cruises

On July 11, in another milestone for the expansion of Crystal, Crystal
Mozart was officially welcomed to the Crystal River Cruises fleet in
Vienna, Austria. During an elegant ceremony attended by local
dignitaries, media and distinguished executives from Crystal, the “Queen
of Europe’s Rivers” was christened by Godmother Ms. Elisabeth Gürtler,
who is the managing director of both the Hotel Sacher, Vienna’s most
famous hotel, and the city’s historic Spanish Riding School.

Crystal Mozart’s maiden voyage on July 13, will mark the official launch
of Crystal River Cruises, which will see four additional river yachts
launched by the end of next summer. Crystal’s CEO and president, Edie
Rodriguez, will personally welcome each guest of the inaugural sailing
aboard the newly reimagined vessel, where they will experience the
hallmarks of the all-inclusive, all-exclusive Crystal Experience –
spacious suites, personal butlers, six-star service featuring the
highest guest to crew ratio in river cruising at 1.74, luxurious
amenities, world-class cuisine and the only river ship with a full wrap
around promenade.

“This is an extraordinary time for our company, as our expansion from
the world’s oceans to its rivers and air allows for numerous new
opportunities and ways for travelers to explore the world with us,” says
Crystal CEO and President Edie Rodriguez. “Each new vessel and adventure
is another step for Crystal toward our goal of providing savvy global
travelers with virtually every luxury travel experience they can
possibly imagine.”

The traditional ceremony welcomed 175 VIP guests to a cocktail reception
on the Vista Deck Four of Crystal Mozart, featuring a traditional
Viennese Brass Orchestra dressed in historic uniforms and playing
traditional Austrian Marches. Master of Ceremonies and Crystal Mozart’s
lead entertainer, musician Mark Farris, then ushered guests shoreside
for the naming of the ship by the godmother and breaking of the magnum
of Szigeti’s 2011 Sonderedition “Adele” champagne. Rodriguez, along with
Crystal COO Thomas Mazloum and Crystal River Cruises Vice President and
Managing Director Walter Littlejohn officially welcomed Crystal Mozart
to the fleet and kicked off further festivities, which included a lavish
dinner in the ship’s Waterside and Blue restaurants.

“Crystal’s presence on the rivers of Europe absolutely raises the bar of
excellence for the luxury river cruising industry, a standard the
company set long ago when it entered the luxury ocean cruising market,”
says Littlejohn, a veteran of the river cruising industry. “We are
thrilled to introduce a new way to explore the world with the
highly-acclaimed Crystal Experience.”

Following dinner, guests were transported to the Belvedere Palace for an
exclusive evening of Mozart and Strauss performances, an event that all
Crystal Mozart guests will experience complimentary when sailing on
Crystal River Cruises’ Danube river itineraries.

Measuring 395 feet long (120.4 meters) and 75 feet wide (22.9 meters),
the all-suite Crystal Mozart is the largest of all European river
vessels and boasts numerous public areas for guests to enjoy. On Crystal
Deck Three, guests will find an array of elegant and casual dining
options, lounges and bars that will foster camaraderie among guests as
they share stories and cocktails. On the uppermost deck, Vista Deck 4, a
pop-up bar sets the scenes for celebrations under the stars while during
the day guests can attend a yoga session or relax in expansive sun
loungers as they sail along the Danube River. Fitness and wellness
enthusiasts can indulge in the largest spa in river cruising at the
Crystal Life Spa, which features an indoor pool and fully-equipped
fitness, spa and saloon facilities.

The 154-guest capacity vessel will sail itineraries along the Danube
River, calling in some of the region’s most stunning locales throughout
Austria, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, and Serbia. And for the
first time on a Crystal voyage, most excursions are complimentary.
Guests can reserve electronic bicycles on the ship for independent
exploration, while VIP Champagne boat tours will also be available for
private cruising and sight-seeing along Europe’s narrower waterways.

Crystal Mozart also bears the distinction as the most technologically
advanced river ship in the world. Each suite offers Apple® iPad devices
that serve as Digital Directories for virtually all of guests’ on-board
needs, from dry cleaning and butler service to room service and dining
reservations, as well as concierge and Crystal Adventures inquiries and
more. Suites also boast 40-inch flat-screen HD televisions, along with
backlit bathroom mirrors with integrated televisions. Bathrooms also
feature highly advanced TOTO Washlet personal cleaning systems
integrated with the toilets, which also offer heated seats, automatic
open/close, aerated water and warm air dryer.

Throughout the ship, digital signage puts available services and port
information at guests’ fingertips, including weather forecasts for the
day, available spa appointments, dining reservations and profiles of
Crystal crew members.

Odo-CBR Commentary: Carnival’s nascent Chinese brand may acquire reported CSSC-Fincantieri newbuildings after completion

A joint venture cruise brand that Carnival plc, the British holding company in the Carnival Corporation & plc group, China Investment Corporation (CIC) and China State Shipbuilding Company (CSSC) agreed to set up last year could acquire the five cruise ship newbuildings on completion from a joint venture set up by CSSC and Fincantieri.

China Daily reported on 8 July that a joint venture ship owning company 60% controlled by the China State Shipbuilding Company (CSSC) and 40% by Fincantieri, the Italian shipbuilder, would build five 133,500 gross ton cruise ships at CSSC’s Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Company (SWS) unit, the first of which is due to enter service in 2021, the newspaper reported on its English language website.

By allowing the joint venture company set up between the two shipbuilders to take the risk of successfully completing the planned ships and acquiring them, either outright or e.g. through a bareboat charter agreement, Carnival group could insulate itself against the risk of problems with the construction of the planned ships.

A project to build two cruise liners for its AIDA Cruises unit in Germany at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan, which has not built cruise ships for more than a decade, run into serious delays due to problems at the yard. SWS has not built cruise ships before.

The gross tonnage of the planned SWS built vessels, 133,500, suggests that these could be based on the same design as Carnival Vista, Costa Diadema and a yet unnamed newbuilding for P&O Cruises Australia, all Carnival group units, from Fincantieri in Italy.

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Global Ocean Cruise Market Analysis & Forecast by Odo Maritime Research is looking into the current state of the industry, the possibilities and threats that may lie ahead.

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Contents

Executive summary 8

Cruise industry in context 13

Tonnage supply 15

A bird’s eye view 15 

Fleet capacity analysis 16 

Space ratio analysis 17 

Vessel size segmental analysis 21 

Fleet age analysis 22 

Small operators 25 

Newbuilding prices analysis 26 

Shipyards & newbuilding prices comparison 28 

Orderbook 32 

Newbuilding capacity delivery trend 37 

Record orderbook & its implications 38

Deployment patterns 40

Cruise brands & market shares 45

Main ocean cruise brands 45 

New & emerging brands 47 

Mergers & acquisitions 48 

Market shares 49

Port development & traffic analysis 55

Port development projects 55 

Port traffic analysis 60

Source markets analysis 70 

Business performances 76

The majors – Carnival Corp. & plc, RCCL, NCLH 76

Volume growth 76 

Development of revenues 77 

Development of net results 78 

Development of revenue & net result per passenger 79 

Development of total & onboard revenue 81 

Development of onboard revenues’ share of total 82 

Return on capital employed 83 

Net yield & net cruise costs 85 

Relative development of operating expenses – illustrations 87 

Development of shareholders’ equity & debt 91 

Earnings estimates by three listed majors 93

Smaller companies 94

Genting Hong Kong 94 

Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines, Ltd. 96 

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. 97

Key observations on business performance 99

Risks & opportunities 100 

Risks 100 

Opportunities 102 

Other considerations 102

Conclusion 104