Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCCL), the world's second largest cruise shipping group, may place on order for a fourth 226,000 gross ton cruise ship for its Royal Caribbean International brand, a senior industry analyst has pointed out.

"RCCL has decided not to exercise an option for 2017 delivery, which had been an option good for either a Quantum or Reflection class ship. RCCL is still mulling an option for a 2018 delivery of a fourth Oasis class ship, and we expect a decision on that in 1H this year," said Robin Farley, leisure and gaming industry analyst at UBS Securities in New York. The company has two Oasis class vessels in service and a third one on order at STX France.

"If option is exercised, it could represent about 90bps of about +1% to +1.5% capacity growth estimate for North American market in 2018 (already included in our 2018 capacity estimates). We note that capex guidance increased by $100M every year for ’14-‘16 vs. previous guidance," she said in a note after RCCL had published its final quarter and full year 2013 results.