Travel and tourist industries need a new road map as growth figures are poised to stall as a result of declining global productivity according to US economic and social theorist and advisor to governments Jeremy Rifkin, the Travel Weekly reports in the UK.
But Rifkin suggested this period of stagnation in what he called "the old economy" could herald a "third industrial revolution" which would transform the world economy and travel sector. He told the World Tourism Forum in Lucerne: "GPD is slowing all over the world. Productivity is waning all over the world. Unemployment is stubbornly high in every country and no industry is more affected than travel and tourism." He warned: "Your growth figures will slow over the next 20 years. You rely on the health of every other industry," he was quoted as saying.
In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its forecast for the global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5%. It also revised down its forecast for 2016 as well, again by 0.3 percentage points, to 3.7% compared to its previous forecast in April 2014. "Even with the sharp oil price decline—a net positive for global growth—the world economic outlook is still subdued, weighed down by underlying weakness elsewhere," the organisation said on the Internet.
The UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has forecast will travel grow over the same period from just over one billion global trips in 2013 to 1.8 billion a year by 2030. Yet Rifkin insisted: "We're at the beginning of a very long sunset, [although] we can glimpse the sun rise."
The peak in oil prices in 2008 had marked the end of an era, he said, arguing: "Your industry started to shut down in the summer of 2008. We're seeing the death of the second industrial revolution [based on oil and car use and telecommunications]," the report said.
Figures on the website of Cruise Lines' International Association (CLIA) show that the global cruise market grew by 1.8% to 21.7 million passengers last year, a marked slowdown from a 4.9% growth in the previous year. In Europe, the growth virtually lost all momentum as the market only expanded by 0.5% in 2014 compared to a growth rate of 4.0% in 2013. The British market actually contracted by 5% despite a good performance of the country's economy: its GDP rose by 2.6% in 2014 on the previous year, according to Office of National Statistics figures.
"You can have all the innovations of Silicon Valley, but if they are plugged into the old economy, it is not going to increase productivity," Rifkin was quoted as saying. However, he suggested we are in the throes of a transformation or "third industrial revolution".
This would develop from the convergence of new communications technology (the internet), new sources of power and new forms of transport (driverless cars and trains).
Rifkin said: "Within 25 years much of the human race will be harvesting their own energy and creating energy co-ops. Millions of people are going to produce their own energy in the next 25 years and share it over the grid. The energy companies will manage the grid."
He argued: "Certain industries have ruptured already – music, TV, newspapers have gone of out business, book publishing is dying." Rifkin added: "The sharing economy is going to eliminate a good deal of goods and services from the capitalist economy."
But he said his vision of the economy could "dramatically increase productivity and reduce costs".
He told the forum: "You need to create a roadmap for travel and tourism."
